Voter numbers tell the real truth
Student-heavy wards contributed least to Smith's victory
Geoff Peterson
Issue date: 11/16/06 Section: Editorial/Opinion
A recent letter in The Leader-Telegram, the "other" newspaper in Eau Claire, implied that increased student turnout in 2006 might be attributed "to the extra credit offered by instructors at UW-Eau Claire combined with a nice day for standing in line with your friends."
If we can step back for a moment and disregard the appallingly condescending attitude towards Eau Claire students that practically oozes from these comments, I think the broader arguments are worthy of analysis. Essentially, the writer implies (as have many) that student turnout made a significant difference in the 2006 election.
In the interests of space, I will limit my discussion to one race. The race that Eau Claire students would have been the most likely to impact was the 93rd assembly district. This race featured incumbent Republican Rob Kreibich running against Democrat Jeff Smith, his opponent from 2004.
In 2004, Kreibich earned 52.16 percent of the vote in the county, but he dropped to 49.3 percent in 2006 and lost his seat. Some have speculated the student vote was a major factor in this outcome. Instead of relying on gut feelings, guesses or assumptions, a look at the actual data may help us assess the impact of student voting.
Essentially, we are looking at two questions: who voted, and for whom did those voters vote? The first question is actually more difficult to answer, as an accurate calculation of voter turnout needs an accurate measure of the eligible voting population. Given the elusiveness of eligible voter counts, the most plausible substitute is to compare turnout in 2006 to turnout in a previous election.
While 2002 might seem the most obvious comparison due to the parallel governor's races, Kreibich did not have an opponent in 2002, and so any turnout numbers would be artificially deflated. In point of fact, 2004 probably provides us the best comparison because the two candidates are the same.
Overall, the number of ballots counted in the 93rd district assembly race in the county dropped by 27.6 percent from 2004 to 2006. In the two wards that are exclusively students (20 and 24), the count dropped by 37.9 percent. In other words, student voting declined more sharply than the county turnout overall. If we include the wards that are considered "heavy" student wards (2, 5 and 6), the numbers look even worse, with turnout declining by 41.04 percent over the same time.
If we can step back for a moment and disregard the appallingly condescending attitude towards Eau Claire students that practically oozes from these comments, I think the broader arguments are worthy of analysis. Essentially, the writer implies (as have many) that student turnout made a significant difference in the 2006 election.
In the interests of space, I will limit my discussion to one race. The race that Eau Claire students would have been the most likely to impact was the 93rd assembly district. This race featured incumbent Republican Rob Kreibich running against Democrat Jeff Smith, his opponent from 2004.
In 2004, Kreibich earned 52.16 percent of the vote in the county, but he dropped to 49.3 percent in 2006 and lost his seat. Some have speculated the student vote was a major factor in this outcome. Instead of relying on gut feelings, guesses or assumptions, a look at the actual data may help us assess the impact of student voting.
Essentially, we are looking at two questions: who voted, and for whom did those voters vote? The first question is actually more difficult to answer, as an accurate calculation of voter turnout needs an accurate measure of the eligible voting population. Given the elusiveness of eligible voter counts, the most plausible substitute is to compare turnout in 2006 to turnout in a previous election.
While 2002 might seem the most obvious comparison due to the parallel governor's races, Kreibich did not have an opponent in 2002, and so any turnout numbers would be artificially deflated. In point of fact, 2004 probably provides us the best comparison because the two candidates are the same.
Overall, the number of ballots counted in the 93rd district assembly race in the county dropped by 27.6 percent from 2004 to 2006. In the two wards that are exclusively students (20 and 24), the count dropped by 37.9 percent. In other words, student voting declined more sharply than the county turnout overall. If we include the wards that are considered "heavy" student wards (2, 5 and 6), the numbers look even worse, with turnout declining by 41.04 percent over the same time.
Viewing Comments 1 - 6 of 7
Cathy Hoffman
posted 11/16/06 @ 8:38 AM CST
I also totally disagreed with the condescending remarks published in the Leader Telegram. I was extremely happy that so many students took a large amount of time out of their busy schedules to vote. (Continued…)
The Great Unwashed
posted 11/16/06 @ 9:52 AM CST
Offering students extra credit to vote is a far greater act of condescension than anything stated by the "Republican activist" in the Leader-Telegram. (Continued…)
Selika Ducksworth Lawton
posted 11/16/06 @ 11:21 AM CST
The letter was very sad, especially where it attempted to lecture students on how they should vote in the future. The implication that our students are not very bright and easily led is an obnoxious one. (Continued…)
Student Voter
posted 11/16/06 @ 12:12 PM CST
It has been offered in the past. Professor Peterson himself has offered extra credit to vote in his poli sci classes, I have a syllabus that says so. (Continued…)
Extra Credit Beneficiary
posted 11/17/06 @ 6:58 AM CST
I have a copy of a syllabus from Political Science 110 from a previous semester which states, in part, that:
"Extra Credit: There is an opportunity for extra credit during the semester. (Continued…)
blah blah
posted 11/27/06 @ 5:55 PM CST
You're forgetting one key component. You would expect Smith's share of the vote to increase least dramatically amongst students becuase students already support Democrats with strong margins. (Continued…)
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